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Smart residential energy management system for demand response in buildings with energy storage devices

S. L. ARUN, M. P. SELVAN

《能源前沿（英文）》 2019年 第13卷 第4期   页码 715-730 doi: 10.1007/s11708-018-0538-2

摘要： In the present scenario, the utilities are focusing on smart grid technologies to achieve reliable and profitable grid operation. Demand side management (DSM) is one of such smart grid technologies which motivate end users to actively participate in the electricity market by providing incentives. Consumers are expected to respond (demand response (DR)) in various ways to attain these benefits. Nowadays, residential consumers are interested in energy storage devices such as battery to reduce power consumption from the utility during peak intervals. In this paper, the use of a smart residential energy management system (SREMS) is demonstrated at the consumer premise to reduce the total electricity bill by optimally time scheduling the operation of household appliances. Further, the SREMS effectively utilizes the battery by scheduling the mode of operation of the battery (charging/floating/discharging) and the amount of power exchange from the battery while considering the variations in consumer demand and utility parameters such as electricity price and consumer consumption limit (CCL). The SREMS framework is implemented in Matlab and the case study results show significant yields for the end user.

关键词： smart grid     demand side management (DSM)     demand response (DR)     smart building     smart appliances     energy storage    

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Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2010年 第4卷 第4期   页码 459-468 doi: 10.1007/s11708-010-0119-5

摘要： An assessment of the energy demand and the potential for sector-based emission reductions will provide necessary background information for policy makers. In this paper, Beijing was selected as a special case for analysis in order to assess the energy demand and potential of CO abatement in the urban transport system of China. A mathematical model was developed to generate three scenarios for the urban transport system of Beijing from 2010 to 2030. The best pattern was identified by comparing the three different scenarios and assessing their urban traffic patterns through cost information. Results show that in the high motorization-oriented pattern scenario, total energy demand is about 13.94% higher, and the average CO abatement per year is 3.38 million tons less than in the reference scenario. On the other hand, in the bus and rail transit-oriented scenario, total energy demand is about 11.57% less, and the average CO abatement is 2.8 million tons more than in the reference scenario. Thus, Beijing cannot and should not follow the American pattern of high motorization-oriented transport system but learn from the experience of developed cities of Europe and East Asia.

关键词： scenario analysis     urban traffic pattern     energy demand     reduction potential    

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Electricity demand, GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

Cosimo MAGAZZINO

《能源前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第1期   页码 31-40 doi: 10.1007/s11708-014-0296-8

摘要： This paper applies time series methodologies to examine the causal relationship among electricity demand, real per capita GDP and total labor force for Italy from 1970 to 2009. After a brief introduction, a survey of the economic literature on this issue is reported, before discussing the data and introducing the econometric techniques used. The results of estimation indicate that one cointegrating relationship exists among these variables. This equilibrium relation implies that, in the long-run, GDP and labor force are correlated negatively, as well as GDP and electricity. Moreover, there is a bi-directional Granger causality flow between real per capita GDP and electricity demand; while labor force does not Granger-cause neither real per capita GDP nor electricity demand. This implies that electricity demand and economic growth are jointly determined at the same time for the Italian case. The forecast error variance decomposition shows that forecast errors in real per capita GDP are mainly caused by the uncertainty in GDP itself, while forecast errors in labor force are mainly resulted from the labor force itself, although aggregate income and electricity are important, too.

关键词： energy policies     electricity demand     GDP     labor force     stationarity     structural breaks     cointegration     causality     Italy    

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我国农村地区中长期能源需求预测

邓可蕴,贺亮

《中国工程科学》 2000年 第2卷 第7期   页码 16-21

摘要：

农村地区能源需求预测属于区域能源需求预测的范畴，主要突出地域的概念。预测中国农村地区能源消费需求形势，将有助于制订农村可持续发展的能源战略。本文根据我国要在2050年达到世界中等发达国家的经济水平这一大目标的要求，通过科学分析测算，提出了农村地区中长期能源需求的常规方案和加强可再生能源开发利用的方案。预计到2020年和2050年，农村地区居住人口分别为6.7亿和4.8亿，采用加强方案，对商品能源的需求量将分别达到12.9×108t和16.3×108t标准煤。

关键词： 农村能源     需求     预测    

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Applications of thermostatically controlled loads for demand response with the proliferation of variablerenewable energy

Meng SONG, Wei SUN

《能源前沿（英文）》 2022年 第16卷 第1期   页码 64-73 doi: 10.1007/s11708-021-0732-5

摘要： More flexibility is desirable with the proliferation of variable renewable resources for balancing supply and demand in power systems. Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) attract tremendous attentions because of their specific thermal inertia capability in demand response (DR) programs. To effectively manage numerous and distributed TCLs, intermediate coordinators, e.g., aggregators, as a bridge between end users and dispatch operators are required to model and control TCLs for serving the grid. Specifically, intermediate coordinators get the access to fundamental models and response modes of TCLs, make control strategies, and distribute control signals to TCLs according the requirements of dispatch operators. On the other hand, intermediate coordinators also provide dispatch models that characterize the external characteristics of TCLs to dispatch operators for scheduling different resources. In this paper, the bottom-up key technologies of TCLs in DR programs based on the current research have been reviewed and compared, including fundamental models, response modes, control strategies, dispatch models and dispatch strategies of TCLs, as well as challenges and opportunities in future work.

关键词： thermostatically controlled load     demand response     renewable energy     power system operation    

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An optimized solar-air degree-day method to evaluate energy demand for poultry buildings in different

Yang WANG, Baoming LI

《农业科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2020年 第7卷 第4期   页码 478-489 doi: 10.15302/J-FASE-2019289

摘要：

The degree-day method is widely used to determine energy consumption but cannot be directly applied to poultry buildings without improvements in its accuracy. This study was designed to optimize the degree-day calculation and proposes a solar-air degree-day method, which can be used to calculate the cooling and heating degree-days and the annual cooling and heating loads under different climate conditions for poultry buildings. In this paper, the solar-air degree-day method was proposed, which considers the effects of solar radiation with different wall orientations and surface colors. Five Chinese cities, Harbin, Beijing, Chongqing, Kunming and Guangzhou, were selected to represent different climate zones to determine the solar-air degree-days. The heating and cooling energy requirements for different climates were compared by DeST (Designer’s Simulation Toolkit) simulation and the solar-air degree-day method. Approaches to decrease energy consumption were developed. The results showed that the maximum relative error was less than 10%, and the new method was not significantly different from the DeST simulation ( >0.05). The accuracy of calculating energy requirements was improved by the solar-air degree-day method in the different climate zones. Orientation and surface color effects on energy consumption need to be considered, and external walls of different orientations should have different surface colors.

关键词： base temperature     energy consumption     solar radiation     orientation     surface color    

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“双碳”背景下我国中长期能源需求预测与转型路径研究

黄震,谢晓敏,张庭婷

《中国工程科学》 2022年 第24卷 第6期   页码 8-18 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.06.002

摘要：

我国是世界上最大的能源消费和碳排放国家，能源结构“偏煤”、产业结构“偏重”的特点给碳达峰、碳中和（“双碳”）目标实现及能源领域高质量发展构成挑战，因而面向未来的能源转型路径研究较为迫切。本文在梳理我国能源发展现状的基础上，对我国中长期能源需求和转型趋势进行了预测及分析。研究结果表明，2035 年我国一次能源需求总量为5.56×109~5.96×109 tce，单位国内生产总值CO2排放强度较2005 年将下降77.6%~81.5%；能源相关CO2排放将在“十五五”时期达峰；能效提高，可再生能源发展，碳捕获、利用与封存技术应用，氢能及可再生燃料替代是降低能源CO2排放的主要技术措施，技术创新是推动重点领域绿色低碳转型的核心驱动力。进一步从推进节能战略，发展可再生能源，加强技术创新，统筹法制、技术和市场等方面提出了发展建议，以期为能源领域高质量发展提供参考。

关键词： 碳达峰；碳中和；能源需求；能源转型    

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基于碳排放达峰约束的2030年中国能源供需模型及实证研究

陈进行

《工程（英文）》 2017年 第3卷 第4期   页码 512-517 doi: 10.1016/J.ENG.2017.04.019

摘要：

综合考虑经济发展、技术进步、政策目标、资源禀赋、环境容量等方面因素，设计了中国能源供需模型，构建了碳排放提前达峰和既定达峰两种情景。应用模型对两种情景下的能源供需和碳排放进行了分析，结果显示：2030年前一次能源和电力需求将持续增长，电力需求增速将显著快于一次能源需求；低碳化是能源供需结构变化的基本特征，2030年前非化石能源将超过石油成为第二大能源；选择能效更高的能源消费模式和更加低碳的能源供应方式，能源消费产生的碳排放可能在2025年左右提前达峰；电源结构的低碳化是碳排放尽早达峰、降低峰值的关键因素。

关键词： 碳排放     达峰     能源供需     模型     情景    

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2035年中国能源与矿产资源需求展望

文博杰,陈毓川,王高尚,代涛

《中国工程科学》 2019年 第21卷 第1期   页码 68-73 doi: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2019.01.010

摘要：

进入21世纪，中国能源和矿产资源消费快速增长，许多重要矿产消费量甚至超过了全球消费总量的一半。未来中长期资源需求预测是国家政策制定和战略规划的重要依据。本文基于中国人口、国内生产总值（GDP）、矿产资源消费量等历史统计数据，选择了人均消费“S”形规律、需求类比和比例关系测算法、部门消费法等方法，对2035年之前43种（类）主要矿产资源的需求量进行了系统预测。结果显示：我国矿产资源需求从全面高速增长向差异化增长转变，2025年前多数大宗矿产将陆续达到需求峰值，2030年一次能源达到需求峰值时的结构会发生重大变化，煤炭将从2017年的60.4%下降到46.3%，天然气将从6.6%增加到13.2%，非化石能源将从13.6%增长到23.4%，2035年大部分战略性新兴矿产仍将保持需求增长，全球供需结构和供需格局都将发生极大改变。

关键词： 能源与矿产资源     消费     需求预测     2035年    

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Cleaning the energy sources for water heating among Nanjing households: barriers and opportunities for

Lingyun ZHU,Beibei LIU,Jun BI

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2014年 第8卷 第5期   页码 757-766 doi: 10.1007/s11783-013-0603-3

摘要： Energy for water heating accounts for an increasing part in residential energy demand in China. An extensive survey was conducted to analyze the determinants of household energy choices for water heaters among residents in Nanjing, China. Two sets of variables were examined as potential influences: building features and household socio-economic characteristics. Results suggest that building features such as gas availability and building structures, and household characteristics such as household head’s education degree and energy-conserving sense are crucial determinants in choosing natural gas as water heater energy. Installation permission for solar water heater, building stories, and residential location serve as determining factors in choosing solar water heaters. Based on these, barriers and opportunities are discussed for transitions toward cleaner water heating energies, and suggestions are given for local governments to promote cleaner energy replacement in China.

关键词： residential energy demand     water heating     multinomial logit model    

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A rank-based multiple-choice secretary algorithm for minimising microgrid operating cost under uncertainties

《能源前沿（英文）》 2023年 第17卷 第2期   页码 198-210 doi: 10.1007/s11708-023-0874-8

摘要： The increasing use of distributed energy resources changes the way to manage the electricity system. Unlike the traditional centralized powered utility, many homes and businesses with local electricity generators have established their own microgrids, which increases the use of renewable energy while introducing a new challenge to the management of the microgrid system from the mismatch and unknown of renewable energy generations, load demands, and dynamic electricity prices. To address this challenge, a rank-based multiple-choice secretary algorithm (RMSA) was proposed for microgrid management, to reduce the microgrid operating cost. Rather than relying on the complete information of future dynamic variables or accurate predictive approaches, a lightweight solution was used to make real-time decisions under uncertainties. The RMSA enables a microgrid to reduce the operating cost by determining the best electricity purchase timing for each task under dynamic pricing. Extensive experiments were conducted on real-world data sets to prove the efficacy of our solution in complex and divergent real-world scenarios.

关键词： energy management systems     demand response     scheduling under uncertainty     renewable energy sources     multiple-choice secretary algorithm    

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Understanding the demand predictability of bike share systems: A station-level analysis

《工程管理前沿（英文）》   页码 551-565 doi: 10.1007/s42524-023-0279-8

摘要： Predicting demand for bike share systems (BSSs) is critical for both the management of an existing BSS and the planning for a new BSS. While researchers have mainly focused on improving prediction accuracy and analysing demand-influencing factors, there are few studies examining the inherent randomness of stations’ observed demands and to what degree the demands at individual stations are predictable. Using Divvy bike-share one-year data from Chicago, USA, we measured demand entropy and quantified the station-level predictability. Additionally, to verify that these predictability measures could represent the performance of prediction models, we implemented two commonly used demand prediction models to compare the empirical prediction accuracy with the calculated entropy and predictability. Furthermore, we explored how city- and system-specific temporally-constant features would impact entropy and predictability to inform estimating these measures when historical demand data are unavailable. Our results show that entropy of demands across stations is polarized as some stations exhibit high uncertainty (a low entropy of 0.65) and others have almost no check-out demand uncertainty (a high entropy of around 1.0). We also validated that the entropy and predictability are a priori model-free indicators for prediction error, given a sequence of bike usage demands. Lastly, we identified that key factors contributing to station-level entropy and predictability include per capita income, spatial eccentricity, and the number of parking lots near the station. Findings from this study provide more fundamental understanding of BSS demand prediction, which can help decision makers and system operators anticipate diverse station-level prediction errors from their prediction models both for existing stations and for new ones.

关键词： bike share systems     demand prediction     prediction errors     machine learning     entropy    

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Optimal locations of monitoring stations in water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns: a flaw of demand coverage method and modification

Shuming LIU, Wenjun LIU, Jinduan CHEN, Qi WANG

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2012年 第6卷 第2期   页码 204-212 doi: 10.1007/s11783-011-0364-9

摘要： A flaw of demand coverage method in solving optimal monitoring stations problem under multiple demand patterns was identified in this paper. In the demand coverage method, the demand coverage of each set of monitoring stations is calculated by accumulating their demand coverage under each demand pattern, and the impact of temporal distribution between different time periods or demand patterns is ignored. This could lead to miscalculation of the optimal locations of the monitoring stations. To overcome this flaw, this paper presents a Demand Coverage Index (DCI) based method. The optimization considers extended period unsteady hydraulics due to the change of nodal demands with time. The method is cast in a genetic algorithm framework for integration with Environmental Protection Agency Net (EPANET) and is demonstrated through example applications. Results show that the set of optimal locations of monitoring stations obtained using the DCI method can represent the water quality of water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns better than the one obtained using previous methods.

关键词： demand coverage     monitoring     optimization     water distribution network     water quality    

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Role of local governments in fostering the development of an emerging industry: A market-oriented policy perspective

Jun JIN, Maureen McKELVEY, Ying DONG

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2020年 第7卷 第3期   页码 447-458 doi: 10.1007/s42524-020-0104-6

摘要： This research investigates the role of local governments in stimulating an emerging industry and focuses on the specific growth of the new energy vehicle industry in Hangzhou, China. This research confirms that enabling firms to access emerging technology, acquire financial support, and touch customers and/or suppliers are critical to foster the emergence and development of industries. Moreover, the primary contribution of this study is to emphasize the support of the local government in the development of emerging industries on the perspective of the creation of a large-scale market demand. The creation of large-scale market demand may inspire actors to be proactive in responding to these incentives; thus, public and private actions may help increase the accessibility to technology, infrastructure, and finances. Hence, a market-oriented policy that incentivizes the creation and expansion of market demand among diverse public and private actors should be seen as the key issue for the emergence and growth of emerging industries. Policies should also be adopted promptly with the development of the market.

关键词： market demand     local government     new energy vehicles    

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Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

Shouke WEI, Shafi Noor ISLAM, Alin LEI,

《环境科学与工程前沿（英文）》 2010年 第4卷 第1期   页码 91-101 doi: 10.1007/s11783-010-0007-6

摘要： Statistic and econometric regression models were established in this study to analyze and predict industrial water demand, water deficits, and their future uncertainty in Beijing—a Chinese city with a severe water stress problem. A forecasting model was selected based on a modeling evaluation by comparing predictions with observations. Four scenarios were designed to simulate and analyze the future uncertainty of industrial water demand and the water deficit of Beijing. The modeling results for industrial water demand suggested that Beijing industry would face a water deficit between 3.06 × 10 min 2008 and 2.77 × 10 m in 2015, though its industrial water demand would decrease from 6.31× 10 m to 4.84 × 10 m during this period of time. Results from simulated scenario illustrated that, due to the extreme water scarcity situation, industry in Beijing would still face a serious water deficit problem even with a very optimistic scenario for the future.

关键词： water scarcity     water demand     water deficit     modeling     industry     scenario     Beijing    

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标题 作者 时间 类型 操作

Smart residential energy management system for demand response in buildings with energy storage devices

S. L. ARUN, M. P. SELVAN

期刊论文

Scenario analysis of the energy demand and CO

Jihong ZHANG, Jian ZHOU, Guangping HU, Tianhou ZHANG

期刊论文

Electricity demand, GDP and employment: evidence from Italy

Cosimo MAGAZZINO

期刊论文

我国农村地区中长期能源需求预测

邓可蕴,贺亮

期刊论文

Applications of thermostatically controlled loads for demand response with the proliferation of variablerenewable energy

Meng SONG, Wei SUN

期刊论文

An optimized solar-air degree-day method to evaluate energy demand for poultry buildings in different

Yang WANG, Baoming LI

期刊论文

“双碳”背景下我国中长期能源需求预测与转型路径研究

黄震,谢晓敏,张庭婷

期刊论文

基于碳排放达峰约束的2030年中国能源供需模型及实证研究

陈进行

期刊论文

2035年中国能源与矿产资源需求展望

文博杰,陈毓川,王高尚,代涛

期刊论文

Cleaning the energy sources for water heating among Nanjing households: barriers and opportunities for

Lingyun ZHU,Beibei LIU,Jun BI

期刊论文

A rank-based multiple-choice secretary algorithm for minimising microgrid operating cost under uncertainties

期刊论文

Understanding the demand predictability of bike share systems: A station-level analysis

期刊论文

Optimal locations of monitoring stations in water distribution systems under multiple demand patterns: a flaw of demand coverage method and modification

Shuming LIU, Wenjun LIU, Jinduan CHEN, Qi WANG

期刊论文

Role of local governments in fostering the development of an emerging industry: A market-oriented policy perspective

Jun JIN, Maureen McKELVEY, Ying DONG

期刊论文

Modeling and simulation of industrial water demand of Beijing municipality in China

Shouke WEI, Shafi Noor ISLAM, Alin LEI,

期刊论文